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The euro is gaining traction, trading above 1.07 dollars, following a significant financial package agreement between CDU/CSU and SPD. Investors are optimistic about economic stimulus in the eurozone, while concerns over U.S. tariffs and inflation weigh on the dollar. The ECB's upcoming meeting and U.S. labor market report are key events to watch.
Fears of a trade dispute continue to impact investor sentiment as the U.S. implements punitive tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns over potential countermeasures. Key economic indicators this week include the ADP employment data and the ECB's interest rate decision, with Non-Farm Payrolls expected to show an increase of 153,000 jobs. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also address the public, adding to the week's market focus.
Silver prices are hovering around $32, influenced by tariff concerns and upcoming US labor market data. The US President has halted military aid to Ukraine, prompting potential countermeasures from affected countries, while key economic indicators are set to be released this week, including non-farm payrolls and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Gold prices are currently consolidating below $2,900 as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for a key interest rate decision, while attention turns to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. Concerns over trade disputes have diminished, although risks remain amid potential tariffs on European goods. Economists predict the creation of 153,000 new jobs in the US, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.0%.
The European Central Bank is expected to approve Unicredit's acquisition of a 29.99% stake in Commerzbank by early March, paving the way for a significant cross-border banking merger. However, the real challenge lies in navigating the hostile political landscape in Germany, where key figures have expressed strong opposition to the takeover. Unicredit's CEO Andrea Orcel is awaiting the formation of the new German government to seek support for the operation.
The European Central Bank is set to approve UniCredit's plan to increase its stake in Commerzbank to 29.9%, despite initial backlash from the German government. Meanwhile, Switzerland may delay new capital rules for UBS until 2028, shifting decision-making to parliament. In the US, Wells Fargo has rolled back its diversity hiring policy amid political pressure, joining other banks like Citigroup and Bank of America in scaling back DEI initiatives. The UK's Serious Fraud Office has abandoned plans to relocate to Canary Wharf, opting to enhance its operational systems instead.
Investors remain unimpressed following ECB President Christine Lagarde's rejection of Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset for eurozone central banks. Hopes are now pinned on US President Donald Trump, who is expected to unveil plans for strategic Bitcoin reserves. Attention is also on the upcoming PCE deflator data, which could provide crucial inflation insights, while Ethereum's price needs to surpass the $3,500 mark to aim for $4,000, with $3,700 acting as a potential resistance level.
The ECB has cut key interest rates by 25 basis points, with the deposit rate now at 2.75%, citing a disinflation trend in the Euro Zone. Despite this move, inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector, suggest that further rate cuts may be limited to one or two this year. The upcoming report on the neutral R* rate will provide additional insights into the ECB's future actions.
The Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate amid high inflation and uncertainty regarding the new Trump administration's economic policies, particularly concerning potential import tariffs. In contrast, the European Central Bank is poised to cut rates, with a possible increase in March if U.S. tariffs are avoided. Meanwhile, the DAX has outperformed the S&P over the past three months, driven by a lack of exposure to the recent AI stock downturn, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend.
The DAX 40 reached a record high of approximately 21,600 points, buoyed by investor optimism following recent tech market concerns. Attention now shifts to the Fed's interest rate decision and the ECB's potential rate hike, with GDP data from Germany, the eurozone, and the USA also on the agenda. Investors are eyeing the 21,800-point mark, hoping for favorable monetary policy signals amidst ongoing risks from the AI sector.
Christine Lagarde
People
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